Tropical Depression ROSA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012
800 PM PDT SAT NOV 03 2012

ROSA IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THE CYCLONE IS A
TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A SMALL PATCH OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS. IF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN
SOON...ROSA WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. EVEN IF CONVECTION REDEVELOPS...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
QUICKLY SHEARED OFF DUE TO STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE
AND SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT STEERED BY 
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT ROSA...OR
ITS REMNANT LOW...WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD AND
SLOW BIAS...AND SINCE ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 12.7N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 12.9N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0000Z 13.2N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 13.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 13.9N 122.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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