Hurricane PAUL
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HURRICANE PAUL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1200 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.3W AT 16/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.3W AT 16/1200Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.1W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 25.8N 111.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 112.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN
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