Tropical Storm KRISTY

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN UNDERGOING A BURSTING
PATTERN.  CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES THAT WERE COOLING EARLIER HAVE
SINCE BEGUN TO GRADUALLY WARM...AND THE CLOUD CANOPY IS NO LONGER
EXPANDING. THE CENTER NOW APPEARS TO BE NEAR OR JUST UNDERNEATH THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. A 0402 UTC ASCAT PASS
SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...
AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE A CONSENSUS 3.0 AT 0000 UTC. BASED ON THE
ASCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.
KRISTY SHOULD SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT TO INDICATE
REMNANT LOW STATUS A BIT SOONER.
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF KRISTY JOGGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT EARLIER
THIS EVENING...THE LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL
295/09.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW KRISTY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK OF KRISTY TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTH AND
ITS FORWARD SPEED TO SLOW DOWN PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST DIFFERS LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF MODELS...VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 20.0N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 20.6N 113.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 21.8N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 23.0N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 24.0N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0600Z 25.8N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0600Z 27.0N 119.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN