Hurricane FABIO

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HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012
 
FABIO STILL HAS A RAGGED EYE...AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SINCE THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE
HURRICANE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STEADY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT 80 KT.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF FABIO IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE
THE HURRICANE ON A TEMPORARY WESTWARD MOTION...OR 280/9 KT.  A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND HELP TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FABIO SHOULD RESPOND BY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.  WHEN FABIO DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW IN
4-5 DAYS...ITS NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE IMPEDED BY
NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE FORECAST HEDGES
ON THE SIDE OF THE MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF AT THAT TIME.

THE HURRICANE IS NOW OVER 26-27C WATER...AND EVEN COLDER WATER LOOMS
AHEAD.  DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT NEAR FABIO...THE HURRICANE MAY ACTUALLY REACH COOLER
WATERS SOONER THAN EARLIER FORECAST GIVEN ITS RECENT WESTWARD
MOTION.  GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY...AND
FABIO COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY IN WINDS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH ARE IN ALMOST PERFECT AGREEMENT. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 16.2N 115.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 16.6N 116.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 17.0N 118.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 18.6N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 23.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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