Tropical Storm EMILIA
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
THE WEAKENING TREND OF EMILIA HAS TEMPORARILY HALTED THIS EVENING.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A SMALL TONGUE OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATER....25 TO 25.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS HAS CAUSED A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL BANDS THAT ARE
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS
45 KT...AND IS BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND RECENT SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE CI NUMBERS OF 3.0. WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME
SATURDAY MORNING AS EMILIA PASSES WEST OF THE AXIS OF THE
WARMER WATER AND INTO A STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS. THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
EMILIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IN LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE NHC
FORECAST IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
IS NEAR THE SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 15.5N 128.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 15.5N 130.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 15.6N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 15.6N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 15.6N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z 15.3N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0000Z 15.0N 151.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z 15.0N 157.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN