Hurricane EMILIA
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HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012
EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE 25-30 N MI
EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN SYMMETRIC UNTIL THE LAST HOUR OR TWO WHERE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE EASTERN EYEWALL. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FIXES...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 100 KT. THE OUTFLOW OF THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...BUT EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB 26C WATERS AND
INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 8 KT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH
OF EMILIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD AND GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 15.0N 119.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.3N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.7N 122.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 16.1N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 16.5N 127.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 17.0N 132.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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