Hurricane EMILIA

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HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

AFTER A VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE EARLIER TODAY...EMILIA
HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT AT A
SOMEWHAT SLOWER RATE.  USING A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK VALUES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT...PUTTING
EMILIA ON THE CUSP OF MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.  AN SSMIS IMAGE FROM
SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY WITH AN ESTIMATED EYE DIAMETER OF 20 N MI.  THE SHIPS-RI
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ABOVE THE EXPLICIT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...OWING TO THE RI PROBABILITIES...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
GFDL MODEL THEREAFTER.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE INTENSITY WILL
LEVEL OFF AND PROBABLY DECREASE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR INTENSE
HURRICANES.

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT TODAY BUT SMOOTHING THROUGH THE
SHORTER-TERM MOTION FLUCTUATIONS LEADS TO A MOTION ESTIMATE OF
295/11.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC
REASONING BEHIND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST.  EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE
OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A MORE WESTWARD TURN
INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LATEST GFS TRACK AND IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 13.1N 111.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 13.5N 112.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 14.0N 114.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 14.5N 116.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 15.0N 118.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 16.0N 121.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 17.0N 126.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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