Hurricane CARLOTTA

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HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
0300 UTC SAT JUN 16 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
EAST OF SALINA CRUZ. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM WEST OF PUNTA
MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. THE HURRICANE WATCH WEST OF ACAPULCO
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  97.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  97.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  96.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.5N  98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  80SE  70SW  25NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.0N  99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.5N  99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N  99.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N  99.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  97.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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