Hurricane BUD

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HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
1500 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.6W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.6W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 105.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.3N 105.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.9N 105.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.0N 105.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.8N 105.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.4N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 
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