Tropical Depression TWO-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012
 
A 1640 UTC ASCAT PASS HAS MADE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MORE
READILY APPARENT...AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS A BIT OF A NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT.  THE ASCAT DATA IS ALSO SHOWING WINDS NO HIGHER THAN
25-30 KT...SO THE CYCLONE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION.
 
THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION HAS RESULTED IN A LONG-TERM
MOTION OF 290/5 KT.  THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TURN AS A WEAKNESS
IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER MEXICO.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
CHANGE IN THE MODELS ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF 
SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT BE FULLY PICKED UP BY A
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND
INSTEAD SLOWS DOWN AND STALLS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.  THE GFDL
AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM PLOWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO...AND THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE DISREGARDED.  THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE DECELERATING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
OF MEXICO...ENDING UP ALONG THE COAST ON DAY 5.
 
DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...AND THE ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION MAY
BEGIN SOON.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS
INCREASED TO 56 PERCENT FOR THE 25-KT THRESHOLD AND 40 PERCENT FOR
THE 30-KT THRESHOLD DUE TO THE SEEMINGLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE NHC
FORECAST THEREFORE INDICATES THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A HURRICANE BY
36 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY SHIPS AND HWRF.  THE
CYCLONE SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 72 HOURS...BUT THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE CYCLONE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN SOME FASHION BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND NOW
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE A HURRICANE ON DAY 5. 
BUT...AS ALREADY STATED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. 
 
USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z  9.6N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 10.2N 102.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 11.3N 103.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 12.4N 104.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 13.6N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 15.5N 105.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 17.0N 104.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 18.0N 102.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...ON THE COAST OF MEXICO
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN