Post-Tropical Cyclone TONY
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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
500 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TONY
REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO OVER 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ALSO GRADUALLY BEEN LOSING
DEFINITION AS THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SEPARATES FARTHER FROM
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS. GIVEN THE DECAYING STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE...TONY IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THIS
ADVISORY. POST-TROPICAL TONY SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE
BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE HEADING OF TONY HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/19. TONY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN A DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE BEFORE
LOSING ITS IDENTITY. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO BUT AGAIN SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 31.2N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/0600Z 31.8N 31.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1800Z 32.5N 28.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0600Z 33.2N 25.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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