Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane SANDY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE SANDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012               
2100 UTC WED OCT 24 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       1       4       5      10
TROP DEPRESSION  X       4       5       8      15      15      20
TROPICAL STORM  34      72      58      56      57      56      51
HURRICANE       66      24      37      35      25      24      19
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       61      21      31      27      20      19      16
HUR CAT 2        4       2       4       6       3       3       1
HUR CAT 3        1       1       2       2       1       1       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   70KT    60KT    65KT    65KT    60KT    60KT    60KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   5(23)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   3(19)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   1(14)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   5(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   5(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   1( 1)  18(19)  22(41)   4(45)   X(45)   X(45)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  1   8( 9)  47(56)   4(60)   2(62)   X(62)   X(62)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   1( 1)  21(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ANDROS         34  2  17(19)  23(42)   2(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
ANDROS         50  X   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  3  78(81)   5(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X  33(33)   7(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  2  31(33)  10(43)   1(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  3   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GRAND TURK     34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  5  10(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 80   1(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 14   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
KINGSTON       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KINGSTON       50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KINGSTON       64  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
LES CAYES      34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
NNNN