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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
JAMAICA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.  A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
 
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  78.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  78.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  77.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.7N  78.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N  78.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.7N  77.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.4N  77.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N  76.0W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE  60SW 200NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 24.5N  74.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.0N  73.0W...SUBTROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N  78.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
 
 
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