Hurricane ISAAC
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HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 14 30 63 83 91
TROP DEPRESSION X 7 45 40 34 17 9
TROPICAL STORM 42 75 37 29 3 X X
HURRICANE 58 17 4 1 X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 53 15 3 1 X X X
HUR CAT 2 4 2 X X X X X
HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 55KT 35KT 30KT 20KT 15KT 15KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PENSACOLA FL 34 32 2(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOBILE AL 34 67 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
MOBILE AL 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GULFPORT MS 50 28 4(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
GULFPORT MS 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
STENNIS SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
STENNIS SC 50 47 10(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
STENNIS SC 64 9 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURAS LA 50 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
BURAS LA 64 48 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
JACKSON MS 34 21 16(37) 2(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
JACKSON MS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 60 20(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 19 12(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 76 16(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 7 37(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 64 18(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 1 16(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 9 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 3 6( 9) 4(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 5 9(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
GALVESTON TX 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HOUSTON TX 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FREEPORT TX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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