Tropical Storm ISAAC
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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC TUE AUG 28 2012
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 2 10 49 71 89
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 11 31 39 28 11
TROPICAL STORM 32 34 67 52 12 1 X
HURRICANE 68 65 20 8 X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 63 53 17 7 X X X
HUR CAT 2 4 10 3 1 X X X
HUR CAT 3 1 3 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 75KT 55KT 45KT 25KT 20KT 15KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ST MARKS FL 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
APALACHICOLA 34 13 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 15 3(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 20 5(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
COLUMBUS GA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 8 7(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
PENSACOLA FL 34 48 8(56) 2(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
PENSACOLA FL 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MOBILE AL 34 56 15(71) 3(74) X(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75)
MOBILE AL 50 2 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MOBILE AL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GULFPORT MS 34 70 15(85) 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
GULFPORT MS 50 4 27(31) 3(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
GULFPORT MS 64 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
STENNIS SC 34 71 20(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
STENNIS SC 50 3 43(46) 5(51) X(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52)
STENNIS SC 64 X 14(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
BURAS LA 34 92 7(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURAS LA 50 40 45(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
BURAS LA 64 5 38(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 92 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 26 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
JACKSON MS 34 11 25(36) 11(47) 6(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55)
JACKSON MS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 73 23(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 3 58(61) 9(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 26(26) 6(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 60 12(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 2 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 42 38(80) 8(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 1 23(24) 19(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 29 36(65) 11(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 1 10(11) 11(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 8 9(17) 7(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 7( 7) 7(14) 5(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 4 10(14) 7(21) 4(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
GALVESTON TX 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
HOUSTON TX 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
FREEPORT TX 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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