Subtropical Storm BERYL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
2100 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 2 5 19 30 39 44
TROP DEPRESSION 14 16 27 37 27 24 20
TROPICAL STORM 83 75 61 40 38 34 33
HURRICANE 2 7 7 5 5 3 3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 7 6 4 5 2 3
HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 1 X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 40KT 30KT 30KT 35KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8)
RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 4(12)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 8(13) 3(16)
WILMINGTON NC 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 3(10) 7(17) 2(19)
COLUMBIA SC 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 6(15) 4(19) X(19)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 5 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) 5(16) 7(23) X(23)
CHARLESTON SC 34 7 11(18) 3(21) 1(22) 7(29) 5(34) X(34)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10)
AUGUSTA GA 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 7(20) 2(22) X(22)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 4 19(23) 12(35) 3(38) 8(46) 1(47) X(47)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MAYPORT NS 34 3 27(30) 28(58) 3(61) 5(66) X(66) X(66)
MAYPORT NS 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20)
MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 2 21(23) 30(53) 4(57) 5(62) 1(63) X(63)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 16(18) 15(33) 2(35) 6(41) 1(42) X(42)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ORLANDO FL 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) 3(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19)
PATRICK AFB 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19)
FT PIERCE FL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10)
W PALM BEACH 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TAMPA FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN
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