Tropical Storm JOVA
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TROPICAL STORM JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
0300 UTC FRI OCT 07 2011
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 X 1 10 32
TROP DEPRESSION 7 8 5 2 3 14 19
TROPICAL STORM 90 78 57 40 30 31 15
HURRICANE 3 13 37 58 67 45 34
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 11 30 39 39 25 18
HUR CAT 2 X 1 5 13 18 12 10
HUR CAT 3 X X 2 5 9 7 5
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 2 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 85KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 6(30)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 21(33) 5(38)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 20(36) 5(41)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 18(30) 6(36)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 16(34) 3(37) 2(39)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 17(27) 6(33)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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