Tropical Depression OPHELIA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
2100 UTC TUE SEP 27 2011
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 3 4 5 3 1 1 1
TROP DEPRESSION 57 37 25 13 6 4 6
TROPICAL STORM 39 56 64 63 47 33 41
HURRICANE 1 3 6 21 47 63 52
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 5 18 33 39 33
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 3 10 16 13
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 3 6 4
HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 40KT 50KT 65KT 75KT 75KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 13(29)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
BARBUDA 34 5 7(12) 5(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
BARBUDA 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANTIGUA 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
GUADELOUPE 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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