Tropical Storm MARIA
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TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
0300 UTC SUN SEP 11 2011
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 2 3 4 3 5
TROP DEPRESSION 7 16 14 17 14 10 15
TROPICAL STORM 89 75 70 62 57 54 54
HURRICANE 4 7 14 18 25 33 26
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 7 12 15 21 26 21
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 3 5 4
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 9(25)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PONCE 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JUAN 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 15 X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
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FORECASTER BEVEN
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