Tropical Storm MARIA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
0300 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
TROP DEPRESSION 12 15 13 8 5 3 3
TROPICAL STORM 86 75 71 56 44 29 26
HURRICANE 2 9 15 34 49 66 70
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 8 12 26 35 40 36
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 5 10 18 19
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 4 7 13
HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 2 2
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 90KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) X(17)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) X(21)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 5(32) X(32)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)
PONCE 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24)
PONCE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JUAN 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 6(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT THOMAS 34 1 23(24) 29(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT CROIX 34 1 23(24) 14(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
SAINT CROIX 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 7 62(69) 7(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 24 48(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BARBUDA 34 42 35(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
BARBUDA 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ANTIGUA 34 62 21(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
ANTIGUA 50 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUADELOUPE 34 73 3(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
GUADELOUPE 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
AVES 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
DOMINICA 34 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
MARTINIQUE 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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