Tropical Storm MARIA
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TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
0900 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT
KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICA
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MARIA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 60.2W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 60.2W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 59.8W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 18.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 27.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 34.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 60.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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