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Tropical Storm MARIA


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TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
0900 UTC THU SEP 08 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...
AND SAINT KITTS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  48.2W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  48.2W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  47.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.8N  51.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.5N  54.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.3N  57.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  30SE  30SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.7N  60.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  30SE  30SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.5N  65.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  30SE  30SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 23.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 26.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N  48.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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