Tropical Storm LEE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
2100 UTC SAT SEP 03 2011
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 4 12 32 48 62
TROP DEPRESSION 4 11 24 30 36 30 22
TROPICAL STORM 90 78 65 51 31 19 13
HURRICANE 6 10 8 6 2 3 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 5 8 6 6 1 2 2
HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 45KT 40KT 30KT 25KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 9(17) 1(18) 1(19)
PENSACOLA FL 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 8(19) 5(24) 1(25) 1(26)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 3(15) 2(17) X(17)
MOBILE AL 34 11 8(19) 6(25) 11(36) 4(40) 1(41) X(41)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GULFPORT MS 34 29 12(41) 7(48) 6(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57)
GULFPORT MS 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
STENNIS SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
STENNIS SC 50 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12)
STENNIS SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURAS LA 50 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 13 5(18) 2(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
JACKSON MS 34 14 11(25) 7(32) 6(38) 2(40) 1(41) X(41)
JACKSON MS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 7 7(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 5 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 4 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 8 4(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
GALVESTON TX 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HOUSTON TX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
FREEPORT TX 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
PORT O CONNOR 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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