Tropical Depression THIRTEEN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
0300 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 3 5 10 17 26 42
TROP DEPRESSION 36 26 25 25 15 26 26
TROPICAL STORM 61 67 63 53 54 42 26
HURRICANE 1 5 8 12 13 6 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 4 7 10 12 5 5
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 1 1 X
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 35KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 4(16)
MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 4(19)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 3(26)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
STENNIS SC 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 10(22) 5(27) 2(29)
STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
BURAS LA 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 9(26) 5(31) 3(34)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 7(18) 4(22) 3(25)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 4(16) 2(18)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 9(21) 9(30) 4(34) 2(36)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 14 11(25) 9(34) 5(39) 6(45) 1(46) 2(48)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 10(24) 11(35) 3(38) 2(40)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 8( 9) 14(23) 12(35) 8(43) 4(47) 1(48)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 13 20(33) 12(45) 5(50) 5(55) 2(57) X(57)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 1(15)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 4( 5) 7(12) 9(21) 9(30) 6(36) 1(37)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GALVESTON TX 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 8(19) 7(26) 3(29) 1(30)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HOUSTON TX 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 7(18) 3(21) 1(22)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
FREEPORT TX 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 6(20) 3(23) X(23)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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