Tropical Storm KATIA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
0900 UTC SUN SEP 04 2011
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X 1 1
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 1 2 2 5
TROPICAL STORM 47 36 29 26 25 23 38
HURRICANE 53 63 70 72 72 75 56
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 49 51 49 43 40 36 35
HUR CAT 2 3 9 15 19 20 23 14
HUR CAT 3 1 2 5 9 11 13 6
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 2 2 3 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 75KT 80KT 85KT 90KT 85KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 4(16)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
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FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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