Hurricane CELIA

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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
 
CELIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AROUND
A COOLING AND SHRINKING EYE.  DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE...AND WERE 5.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 105 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. CELIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM...AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  CELIA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
...THE FORWARD SPEED OF CELIA WILL DECREASE TO ABOUT 2 KT LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 14.8N 119.7W   105 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 15.4N 121.0W    85 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 16.4N 124.4W    40 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 16.5N 125.3W    30 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 16.5N 126.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     01/0000Z 16.5N 127.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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