Hurricane CELIA

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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010
 
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CDO THAT
HAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR SINCE YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY.  RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES REVEAL AN EYE THAT IS STILL A LITTLE TILTED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN T5.0 AND
T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC THIS
MORNING...SUGGESTING THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR MAY BE ABATING.  THE
SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO PREDICT THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO
BELOW 10 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
REASONING AND PREDICTS CELIA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN
24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE...BUT IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
IN 3-4 DAYS...CELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS THAT
ARE LIKELY TO INITIATE WEAKENING.
 
CELIA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS MAINTAIN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A FEW
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCN
CONSENSUS.  THIS IS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF...WHICH WEAKENS
THE RIDGE MORE THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE
SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION OF CELIA LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 11.6N 105.3W    90 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 11.7N 106.7W   100 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 11.8N 108.6W   105 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 12.1N 110.7W   105 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 12.5N 113.0W   100 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 13.7N 117.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 123.5W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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