Hurricane CELIA

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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010

CELIA IS EXHIBITING A RATHER CIRCULAR-LOOKING COLD-TOPPED CDO
FEATURE WITH MINIMAL BANDING EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGES AT THIS
TIME.  AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES BUT AN
EARLIER SSM/I OVERPASS OF THE HURRICANE...FROM JUST AFTER 0000
UTC...DID SHOW A SMALL EYE.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB....USING AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...REMAIN AT 5.0...
CORRESPONDING TO 90 KT...SO THE INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ASYMMETRIC AND IS
OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  THE
SHIPS MODEL...WHICH DIAGNOSES VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE GFS FORECAST
OUTPUT...INDICATES THAT THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER CELIA
SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST PREDICTS STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AND IS NOT
TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE SHIPS/LGEM FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE LATTER
MODEL DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO LATER IN THE PERIOD.  SINCE THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RATHER SOON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INTENSIFIES CELIA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATISTICALLY-BASED INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  BY DAYS 4-5...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UNDER CELIA ARE LIKELY TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY SO THE
NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING TO BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/7.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
THEREFORE CONTINUE IT MAINLY WESTWARD TREK.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY THE GLOBAL
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  THEREFORE...BY DAY 4...A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS INDICATED BY THE TRACK MODELS AND ALSO BY THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
EXCLUDES THE GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A TRACK THAT APPEARS TO
BE TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO THE OVERALL GUIDANCE
SUITE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 11.8N 104.7W    90 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 11.9N 105.9W   100 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 12.1N 107.6W   105 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 12.3N 109.6W   105 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 12.6N 111.8W   100 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 13.7N 116.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 120.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N 123.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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