Hurricane KARL

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 17 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105   
KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X      27      50      NA      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       2      49      31      NA      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM   7      64      22      13      NA      NA      NA
HURRICANE       93      34       3       6      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       22      24       1       1      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        5       4       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3       29       4       1       2      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4       35       3       1       3      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        1       X       X       1      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  120KT    65KT    30KT    20KT    NA      NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
LA PESCA MX    34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  3   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
TUXPAN MX      34 34  25(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
TUXPAN MX      50  2   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
TUXPAN MX      64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VERACRUZ MX    50 73   4(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
VERACRUZ MX    64 15   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
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