Hurricane KARL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1500 UTC THU SEP 16 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 5 36 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 21 25 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 11 10 8 55 17 NA NA
HURRICANE 88 90 91 19 22 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 76 49 42 13 10 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 11 31 31 3 8 NA NA
HUR CAT 3 1 9 17 2 4 NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X 1 2 X 1 NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75KT 85KT 95KT 50KT 25KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LA PESCA MX 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
TAMPICO MX 34 1 5( 6) 31(37) 10(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50)
TAMPICO MX 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18)
TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TUXPAN MX 34 2 19(21) 52(73) 8(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82)
TUXPAN MX 50 X 3( 3) 41(44) 10(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55)
TUXPAN MX 64 X 1( 1) 24(25) 7(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33)
VERACRUZ MX 34 2 41(43) 13(56) 2(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59)
VERACRUZ MX 50 X 8( 8) 13(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
VERACRUZ MX 64 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
FRONTERA MX 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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