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Tropical Storm JULIA

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TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010
 
JULIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A POORLY ORGANIZED BAND WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED TO 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 35 KT...USING A BLEND OF THE DVORAK DATA T AND CI NUMBERS. 
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE.  JULIA IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER 25 C
WATERS BY THAT TIME...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.

A 1958 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND A 2307 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS HAVE BEEN
HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JULIA...WHICH IS VERY
NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
055/11...USING A BLEND OF SATELLITE FIXES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE DATA.  JULIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS
OF THE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND HWRF MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 35.2N  48.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 35.8N  47.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 36.8N  45.7W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 38.0N  43.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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