Tropical Storm EARL

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  40             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 04 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
41.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       4       5      10      17      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  2      29      26      28      32      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  84      64      61      56      44      NA      NA
HURRICANE       14       4       7       7       8      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       14       3       6       5       6      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        1       X       1       1       2      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    45KT    45KT    40KT    35KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ILE ST PIERRE  34  1  12(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  2  29(31)   X(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  6  51(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
PTX BASQUES    50  X  18(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34 69   9(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
EDDY POINT NS  50 20  19(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
EDDY POINT NS  64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SYDNEY NS      34 33  28(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
SYDNEY NS      50  1  19(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34 31   3(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
HALIFAX NS     34 97   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
HALIFAX NS     50 63   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
HALIFAX NS     64  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
YARMOUTH NS    50 75   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 
MONCTON NB     34 60   2(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
MONCTON NB     50 21   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
ST JOHN NB     34 54   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
ST JOHN NB     50 17   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
EASTPORT ME    34 31   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
EASTPORT ME    50  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
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