Tropical Storm COLIN
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TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
0300 UTC SUN AUG 08 2010
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 3 2 4 7 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 35 20 16 18 18 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 63 74 71 63 57 NA NA
HURRICANE 1 4 11 16 18 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 10 13 14 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 2 NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 2 NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) X(32) X(32)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BERMUDA 34 11 53(64) 8(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
BERMUDA 50 X 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
BERMUDA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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