Tropical Depression FOUR
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2010
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 2 3 1 3 5 7
TROP DEPRESSION 33 21 16 10 12 17 20
TROPICAL STORM 64 72 69 57 53 53 51
HURRICANE 2 6 12 32 32 25 22
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 5 10 25 23 19 18
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 5 6 4 3
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 3 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 55KT 55KT 50KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) 1(11)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) 1(12)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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