Tropical Depression FOUR

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010               
1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       2       3       3       4       7       9
TROP DEPRESSION 33      21      16      12      15      21      23
TROPICAL STORM  64      72      69      62      55      53      49
HURRICANE        2       6      12      23      26      19      19
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       5      10      18      20      15      16
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       3       4       3       2
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       2       2       1       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    40KT    45KT    50KT    50KT    45KT    45KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
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