Tropical Storm ALEX

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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF ALEX MOVED INLAND IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF BELIZE CITY...WHERE RECENT OBSERVATIONS SERVE AS THE BASIS
FOR THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...A
RECENT BURST DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVED INLAND. GIVEN
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 50 KT...IN
AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CI ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.
NOW THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY AS ALEX MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER
ALEX MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND THESE MODELS TAKE ALEX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND INTO MEXICO IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.
GIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 17.7N  88.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N  89.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.6N  91.5W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 20.4N  92.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N  93.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 22.0N  96.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 23.0N  99.0W    55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N 101.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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