Tropical Storm IDA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2009
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 6 15 21 31 32 35
TROP DEPRESSION 7 36 31 19 23 20 17
TROPICAL STORM 89 53 46 42 39 38 33
HURRICANE 4 5 8 18 7 11 15
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 4 4 6 15 6 9 12
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 2 1 2 2
HUR CAT 3 1 X X 1 X 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 35KT 40KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 2(21) 1(22)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 13 11(24) 3(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BLUEFIELDS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN ANDRES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
NNNN
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