Tropical Storm IDA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 3 15 25 40 39 43
TROP DEPRESSION 10 24 37 28 29 20 15
TROPICAL STORM 81 66 41 37 27 34 31
HURRICANE 9 7 7 10 4 7 12
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 8 6 6 8 3 6 9
HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 40KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 35KT 40KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 2(19) 3(22)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 10(11) 6(17) 3(20) 2(22) 1(23) 1(24)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BLUEFIELDS 34 9 11(20) 3(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
BLUEFIELDS 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
BLUEFIELDS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAN ANDRES 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
$$
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