Tropical Depression ELEVEN
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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2009
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 3 4 10 21 27 37
TROP DEPRESSION 8 15 13 25 22 15 20
TROPICAL STORM 87 73 69 54 42 39 34
HURRICANE 4 10 14 11 15 20 10
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 8 12 9 12 15 8
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 1 3 3 1
HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 50KT 35KT 25KT 25KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 1(18)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 11(12) 16(28) 6(34) 5(39) 2(41) 1(42)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BLUEFIELDS 34 3 14(17) 10(27) 3(30) 3(33) 1(34) 1(35)
BLUEFIELDS 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAN ANDRES 34 30 14(44) 3(47) 2(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51)
SAN ANDRES 50 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)
SAN ANDRES 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
LIMON 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11)
COLON 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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