Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172008
800 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2008
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION AS
INDICATED BY A 0125 UTC SSMI PASS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT
CHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. SINCE THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 12 HOUR OR SO...THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE ENDING. A
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO AS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
AND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOME EVEN MORE DETACHED. IT SHOULD
BE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR EARLIER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 360/10. THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD SLOW DOWN VERY SOON AND TURN MORE THE WEST AS IT
BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.3N 105.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 15.8N 105.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 17.0N 106.3W 30 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.5N 107.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 18.0N 108.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 18.0N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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