Hurricane NORBERT
ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
1500 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 34 NA NA NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 53 NA NA NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 37 13 NA NA NA NA NA
HURRICANE 63 X NA NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 61 X NA NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 3 X NA NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 30KT NA NA NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LA PAZ 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
LORETO 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
LORETO 50 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
LORETO 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HERMOSILLO 34 6 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BAHIA KINO 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUAYMAS 34 45 13(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
GUAYMAS 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 85 9(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
HUATABAMPO 50 22 14(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
HUATABAMPO 64 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LOS MOCHIS 34 55 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
LOS MOCHIS 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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