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Hurricane NORBERT


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31               
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008               
1500 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X      34      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X      53      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  37      13      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
HURRICANE       63       X      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       61       X      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        3       X      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   70KT    30KT    NA      NA      NA      NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34 95   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 
LORETO         34 97   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
LORETO         50 52   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
LORETO         64  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  6   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUAYMAS        34 45  13(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
GUAYMAS        50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HUATABAMPO     34 85   9(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
HUATABAMPO     50 22  14(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
HUATABAMPO     64  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34 55   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
LOS MOCHIS     50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34 25   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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