Hurricane NORBERT
ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL
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HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2008
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 7 60 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 5 24 30 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 9 41 63 60 10 NA NA
HURRICANE 91 58 31 9 1 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 78 51 28 8 1 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 12 6 3 1 X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75KT 70KT 65KT 50KT 20KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 6( 8) 8(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
LA PAZ 34 1 5( 6) 12(18) 15(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 16(25) 7(32) X(32) X(32)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 13(23) X(23) X(23)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 8 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLA CLARION 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
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