Hurricane NORBERT
ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
0900 UTC THU OCT 09 2008
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 46 71 NA
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 27 27 NA
TROPICAL STORM X 1 4 23 14 1 NA
HURRICANE 99 99 96 76 12 X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 16 27 45 7 X NA
HUR CAT 2 6 42 36 20 4 X NA
HUR CAT 3 78 38 28 10 2 X NA
HUR CAT 4 16 5 5 1 X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110KT 100KT 100KT 90KT 30KT 20KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) 1(25) X(25)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 14(21) 13(34) X(34) X(34)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 15(33) X(33) X(33)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 21(26) 28(54) 1(55) X(55)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 42(57) 2(59) X(59)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18)
BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 2(31) X(31)
GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 2(45) X(45)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13)
HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) 1(42) X(42)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)
LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 29(37) 1(38) X(38)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 15 7(22) 3(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA CLARION 34 63 22(85) 3(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
ISLA CLARION 50 6 20(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
ISLA CLARION 64 2 9(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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