Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2008
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 7 17 24 44 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 28 25 34 41 38 38 NA
TROPICAL STORM 72 70 57 39 35 17 NA
HURRICANE X 3 4 3 2 X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 3 4 3 2 X NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 25KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 12(13) 9(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 8( 9) 7(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
LA PAZ 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
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