Tropical Storm JULIO

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TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008
 
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF
JULIO IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY AN AMSU MICROWAVE
OVERPASS AROUND 1215 UTC.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 45 AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY.  HOWEVER...THE
TAFB FIX POSITION WAS A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE CONVECTION...WHICH 
YIELDS AN ESTIMATE THAT IS LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT...BASED ON THE SAB CLASSIFICATION AND
A RECENTLY-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT PASS.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO CONFIRMS
OUR EARLIER WIND RADII ESTIMATES. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11.  JULIO CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
JULIO HAS ONLY A LITTLE TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA.  THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR PRIOR TO REACHING THE BAJA
PENINSULA IS MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN GRADUAL
WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  IF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS INLAND OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IT COULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE FASTER THAN INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

MOISTURE FROM JULIO COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES IN A FEW DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 22.4N 110.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 23.7N 110.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 25.3N 111.8W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 26.7N 112.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 29.1N 113.6W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
 
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