Tropical Storm BORIS
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TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008
BORIS HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AND HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN EITHER. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BEEN ASYMMETRIC AND UNIMPRESSIVE MOST OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH IT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION DURING THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. BORIS COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY IN THE
NEAR TERM...12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
BORIS IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 TO 13 KNOTS. IN GENERAL...MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A RIDGE NORTH OF BORIS STRONG ENOUGH TO
STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH SOME
MODELS MOVE BORIS EASTWARD AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...THE DISCREPANCY
AMONG TRACK MODELS IS LESS OBVIOUS. THIS CAN BE TRANSLATED INTO A
REDUCTION OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 14.7N 122.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.6N 123.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.5N 127.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 129.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 14.5N 130.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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FORECASTER AVILA
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