Tropical Storm BERTHA

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008               
0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       1       1       2       3
TROP DEPRESSION  2       3       5       4       4       5       8
TROPICAL STORM  91      72      55      44      35      34      37
HURRICANE        7      24      39      52      60      59      52
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6      22      33      36      36      34      28
HUR CAT 2        1       2       4      11      14      15      13
HUR CAT 3        1       1       2       4       7       8       8
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       3       2       2
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    55KT    60KT    65KT    70KT    70KT    70KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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