Tropical Storm BERTHA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2008
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 3 4 4
TROP DEPRESSION 6 7 7 7 8 9 14
TROPICAL STORM 90 78 65 51 46 45 42
HURRICANE 4 15 28 42 43 43 40
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 13 24 31 29 28 24
HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 7 9 10 11
HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 2 4 4 3
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 60KT 60KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
$$
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