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Tropical Storm GABRIELLE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  5  10(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 55   6(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
CAPE HATTERAS  50 16   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 86   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 359N  758W 34 49  18(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 12 359N  758W 50 10   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 12 359N  758W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 373N  739W 34  X  44(44)  13(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 24 373N  739W 50  X  13(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 24 373N  739W 64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 385N  711W 34  X   3( 3)  29(32)   7(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 36 385N  711W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 36 385N  711W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 398N  678W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 48 398N  678W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 48 398N  678W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     50      45      40       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
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