Tropical Storm SERGIO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006               
2100 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 143N 1027W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 143N 1027W 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 143N 1027W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 148N 1029W 34 23   7(30)   3(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 24 148N 1029W 50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 24 148N 1029W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 156N 1036W 34  3   6( 9)   6(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 36 156N 1036W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 156N 1036W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 163N 1042W 34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 48 163N 1042W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 163N 1042W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 175N 1070W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 72 175N 1070W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 175N 1070W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     30      30      25      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA                                           
                                                                    
                                                                    
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